Geo-politics of Zimbabwe
The 5 permanent members of the security council USA,Russia,China,France,UK and the de facto EU leader the revieved Germany exerts so much influence on global politics.Each continent and region represents an opportunity for these superpowers to expand their influence and Zimbabwe will be on their sights.
If India was the British Empire´s crowned Jewel, in Africa Southern Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) was the British Empire crowned Jewel on that continent .
With unlimited resources such as diamonds,gold,platinum and a successful agricultural economy it's no wonder when Ian Smith unilaterally declared independence in 1965 from Britain, sanctions followed afterwards.Britain was not going to let go of her prized colony just like that.Rhodesia was too important for the British.
When Independence in 1980 came, it was a relief for the the British when then new Prime Minister Robert Mugabe declared that Zimbabwe would be for all regardless of race,religion and culture.
There would be a national reconciliation between blacks and whites and a solution in future for a fair land reform. Mugabe became the poster boy of the British and west.The Lancaster house agreement of 1979 would form the basis of the constitution of the newly formed Zimbabwe and guaranteed that land property rights was to be respected .It was to be the example Nelson Mandela would follow in reuniting the deeply divided post apartheid South Africa.The land issue was to be kept under control for the next 20 years on a willing buyer and seller deal under the Conservative British Government of Margaret Thatcher and John Major .Zimbabwe was a shining beacon of all the UK's former colonies.It held the number one illiterate ranking in Africa,a great agricultural economy and mineral resources. it was a shining example that former British colonies fared better than the French, and Portuguese ones in Africa .
That all Changed when Labour party s Tony Blair came to power in 1999 and Mugabe losing control within his Zanu PF party.The land reform finally happened in a controversial violent way following the dispute between Tony Blair and Mugabe on the land issue in the 2001.
Britain would lose control over its former colony for the next 17 years until Mugabe was removed from power in November 2017.Moreover Brexit happened also in 2016 fueled by a desire of the Brexiteers to make Britain a great country again and free it from the shackles of the European Union .With Brexit came a new opportunity for the British to reassert their influence and restore the glory days of the British empire.
Zimbabwe is now an Important geopolitical country for them in Southern Africa and they would want to reclaim that influence again.With their main obstacle gone which was Mugabe the British are happy to work again with Zanu PF.The Zimbabwe Mnangagwa government will not mind British influence as they need the money to restore their economy.Expect British influence to increase after Brexit next year.
USA
Some analyst strongly believe that Zidera(USA sanctions act on Zimbabwe) is an MDC drafted legislation which the US senators were handed to by them to read,approve ,pass through a congressional vote and signed by the President George Bush in 2001 and now amended 2018 one by current President Donald Trump.It's the Heartbeat of the MDC thats makes them the biggest political opposition party in Zimbabwe.A destroyed economy through sanctions like the 2008 election period which gave MDC s Tsvangirai the victory in that elections but not enough to be declared the presidential winner is their ticket to the state house .This was demostrated with the 2000s hyperinflation caused by the sanctions that eventually destroyed the Zimbabwe currency.
Currently the Trump administration has 5 issues on its agenda.
These are North Korea,the Middle East,China,America first and Russia.Africa is not part of their agenda for the main players in the Trump Administration.Its job delegated to the government department of the US foreign relations for Africa and to three senators who have this power,Senator Chris Coons,Jeffrey Flake and Cory Booker.These three hold the cards to the US policy on Zimbabwe and the MDC appear to be their preferred party to rule Zimbabwe.In truth however with Brexit next year , the UK will seek to regain influence again on its former colony and its cousin uncle Sam will not get in their way.It was Tony Blair's Britain which influenced the US and EU to impose Sanctions on Zimbabwe.
It won't be hard for Theresa May to convince Trump that she wants and it is in the UK post Brexit trade interest that Zimbabwe sanctions be removed so the UK can also restore its geopolitical influence again.
Brexit again and British Influence holds the key to Zimbabwe geo political scenario so if the British say no more sanctions on Zimbabwe, American would support its cousin decision. just like how Tony Blair influenced George Bush.
European Union
It's no secret that Germany is the de facto leader of the EU.
However it's highly unlikely even after Brexit they view Zimbabwe as an important Geopolitical sphere of Influence.Germany is concerned with Europe and France both including its former colonies in Africa which its has a sphere of influence.Its seems highly unlikely that their influence would be greater than that of the the UK be it currently or post Brexit.
Russia and China
Vetoed United Nations sanctions against Zimbabwe in 2002 and 2008.Trained and supplied arms to the Zimbabwe liberation war movement in the 1970s.China and Russia´s position regarding Zimbabwe will not change.A Zanu PF government is the right government for them and they would be hoping a Brexit UK would allow Zimbabwe to be free of Sanctions so they invest more directly in a sanctions free Zimbabwe,just like how they are doing in other Africa not affected by sanctions.China will the main player involved in Zimbabwe.
